Thursday, May 9, 2019

Scaling back Quantum Computing Expectations

Christopher Monroe writes:
If you watch the technology headlines you might think something called quantum computing is the Next Big Thing. ...

We must be clear, however, about what is and isn’t happening next. The big quantum computing discoveries that will most impact society are still years away. In the meantime, we will see breathless announcements of records broken as the technology rapidly develops. ...

In 3-5 years, these machines will perform certain calculations that would not be possible using ordinary computers. But it may be 5-10 years before any of these machines have the capacity and accuracy to solve useful problems. Along the way, I worry that some who read about quantum computing being the next big thing will feel let down and lose interest. We can’t let that happen. Government needs to continue to support ...
This has the tone of a scammer who is trying to keep the money flowing while he manages expectations.

He is predicting quantum supremacy in 3-5 years. Okay, I will note that, if this blog is still around. For the past several years, experts from IBM, Google, and Microsoft have been saying to expect it in the next year.

They want continued funding, even if none of the promises are realized.

Scott Aaronson endorses this view, tho he has personally stopped commenting to the press. But he has commented to the press on the scientific accuracy of time travel in the new Marvel Avengers movie!

Update: I see Scott has commented to the press about using quantum computers for reversing time. I will post more on this later.


  1. These morons won't even ENTERTAIN the idea that they are impossible in theory and not just practice!

  2. This is not much more different than the idea that if an imaginary Superman flies around the planet counter-clockwise, he is going back in time. What rubbish.