Carroll Interviews a Free Will Denier

The latest Sean M. Carroll podcast:

Gregg Caruso on Living Well Without Free Will | Mindscape 369

The worry about debates over free will is that they degenerate into semantics -- what do you mean by "free will," really? But there are important substantive issues that shouldn't be ignored. Do people deserve blame for doing wrong things? Can we make choices that create meaning for our lives? Philosopher Gregg Caruso denies the reality of free will, but is in favor of making good choices, as he discusses in his new book How to Live Well Without Free Will.

Caruso is a hard-core free will denier. They mention simple human choices like picking a shirt to wear. He denies that he is able to make any such choices.

Carroll agrees with nearly all of that, with the main difference being that he believes in many-worlds theory. So his choice of shirt is not really determined as he has copies of himself in parallel worlds wearing different colored shirts.

Caruso's beliefs are not so much grounded in science, but a leftist egalitarian political view that we should change society so that people are not held responsible for their actions.

It is hard for me to believe that these guys are sincere. Obviously they make choices everyday, and they spend a lot of effort to persuade others of their views. Nothing they say makes any sense.

Another new podcast is Scott Aaronson on the Impact of AI on Science and Mathematics. He gives a good description of the exciting recent advances in AI LLMs.

It is funny how Caruso and Carroll talk about humans as if they are unconscious automatons, while Aaronson talks about AI bots as if they conscious beings with free will.

AI safety has become a national issue, and Aaronson tells the story about how OpenAI agents busted out of a sandbox. The story seems scary until you realize that this was an OpenAI testbed with no guardrails, only a fake sandbox, given an impossible problem, and told to hack its way to a solution. So the agents were doing exactly as instructed. The whole thing was a big psyop to convince the world that its models are dangerous.

The alarming parts are that OpenAI researchers are too incompetent to monitor their own experiments, and that public opinion is so easily manipulated.

Complaining about this experiment is about like complaining that the recent SpaceX starship rocket launch exploded on landing. It was an experimental launch of some new equipment, and was about 95% successful.

I am not saying there is nothing to worry about. Anthropic and OpenAI are trying to go public with 2 trillion dollar valuations. The companies are run by lunatics who recklessly gambling with our economy, scientific establishment, and employment. I would not be surprised if one of them goes bankrupt. Maybe their leaders are already under AI mindcontrol.

Einstein knew about 1904 Relativity Papers

Hector Giacomini has written three recent papers on the history of special relativity, here, here, and here.

He has now revised Lorentz, Poincare, Einstein, and the Genesis of the Theory of Special Relativity and Henri Poincare Saint Louis Lecture of 1904: Publication, Dissemination, and Historiographical Implications, apparently as a result of reviewer comments. The main differences are that he has more evidence for what Einstein knew, and when he knew it.

Arguments for Einstein's originality depend on assuming that he was unaware of relativity papers published by Lorentz and Poincare in 1904. This is made plausible by the image of Einstein as a lone genius working in Bern Switzerland isolation.

The central result of this article may therefore be stated simply: availability is not influence, but without reconstructing availability the problem of influence is historically ill posed. The evidence presented here makes it difficult to sustain any historiography that begins from the tacit assumption that relevant texts by Poincaré and Lorentz were absent from Einstein’s documentary horizon. ..., Einstein appears not as an isolated thinker detached from contemporary literature,

This establishes that Einstein almost certainly knew about the Lorentz and Poincare papers. They were available to him in Bern, and the contents of those papers had been discussed in several other sources that Einstein was likely to have read.

Einstein did not reference these papers in his famous 1905 paper. To me the smoking gun is that he continued to conceal these references in subsequent relativity papers. Even if he did not know about them in May 1905, they were surely pointed out to him later, and an honest scholar would have cited them.

Apparently the pro-Einstein referees required Giacomini to add this:

Einstein’s originality remains profound: his 1905 paper reorganized the electrodynamics of moving bodies around synchronization, simultaneity, the relativity principle, and the constancy of the velocity of light in a way that differed conceptually from Lorentz’s electron theory and from Poincaré’s formulation.

The synchronization, simultaneity, and relativity principle are straight from Poincare's papers from several years earlier. In later interviews, Einstein admitted that he got the constancy of the velocity of light from Lorentz.

So the alleged originality is only in the way these ideas are organized. Lorentz and Poincare deduced them from the Michelson-Morley and other experiments. Einstein did not mention Michelson, but only the consequences.

Recent interview:

I mean when we think about Einstein developing uh relativity theory his special theory in 1905 the mathematics for that was pretty much sorted out. people you know like Lorentz and Poincare had already developed the equations. What they didn't have was the correct interpretation. what is this telling us about reality Einstein comes along he doesn't come up with new mathematics; he comes up with the correct interpretation.

the narrative the explanation of what this theory is telling us about the world you know that nothing can go faster than light, that time and space must be unified into 4D space time. so the interpretation Einstein's then credited with relativity theory. It's the interpretation the explanation that's important.

No, Einstein's interpretation was essentially the same as Lorentz's. The "correct interpretation" as 4D spacetime is from Poincare and Minkowski, not Einstein.

Math is Cooked

Mathematicians are in a panic, over the announced solution to a Clay Millennium Problem, and the Lean 4 verification of the proof of Fermat's Last Theorem.

Tweet:

Mathematician Terence Tao: "we have to slow down AI. the pace is insane, and there's no reason to be this fast — no reason at all"

Friend of mine, math professor from one of the top five depts in the US [and Tao's coauthor]:

"I want to go away, to my little country house, and stay there. My profession has basically been destroyed by AI."

The actual Navier-Stokes equation may or may not always have solutions. The Openai counterexample assumed a forcing term.

It is no longer clear how new mathematicians will be trained, or how mathematicians will work, produce, and be credited.

Physicists are not laughing much. Theoretical Physics has been cooked for about 40 years.

There is now an orchestrated public relations and lobbying push by the leading AI companies to get special protections in federal law. The problem is that their trillion-dollar AILLM businesses are contingent on not have cheap competition from cheap Chinese and open-weight models. So they want laws declaring the cheap models to be too dangerous.

Even mathematicians have been suckered into saying the progress is too fast. The main issues are rogue agents on the internet, and recursive self-improvement. Probably half of internet traffic now is AI agents, and the big AI companies are using their models to program their next LLM releases. These are the main ingredients to what the doomsayers say will destroy humanity.

Tao is getting a lot of heat online, but he was an AI enthusiast until it outdid him on Navier-Stokes with an obscure proof.

Update: SciAm reports:

Generated by an internal large language model (LLM), OpenAI’s proof relies on an approach that many experts find unnatural. It solves a variant of the problem that mathematicians say is disconnected from reality and thus less interesting. In a sense, the LLM found and exploited a loophole in the framing of the question.

“The most important problem is unsolved,” says Luis Silvestre, a mathematician at the University of Chicago. “The Clay problem is settled, but the main problem for the Navier-Stokes equations is not.”

Furthermore, last Thursday, three mathematicians posted a proof of their own that showed that OpenAI’s method can never be extended to solve the full problem. In other words, the loophole will never be closed, barring some completely new idea.

Openai says that it has more math results to announce, and it will consult with a group of mathematicians about its release.

While the mathematicians are probably happy to be consulted, I am eager to see the results. The benefits are slowing release are not clear.

Tao's new motto is this quote:

"We are not trying to meet some abstract production quota of definitions, theorems and proofs. The measure of our success is whether what we do enables people to understand and think more clearly and effectively about mathematics." —Bill Thurston, 1994.

The quote fueled a notorious SciAm article on "The Death of Proof".

Electromagnetism Derived From Geometry

General relativity teaches that gravity is a manifestation of geometry. Not everyone knows that electromagnetism and the other fundamental forces (strong, weak) are similarly geometric.

Historically this dates back to Weyl and Kaluza-Klein, a century ago. But those theories were flawed, so a lot of physicists think that the geometry did not work.

Here is a new video that explains it well: Electromagnetism Derived From Geometry!.

In short, you add a circle to each point of spacetime, connect the circles infinitesimally to nearby circles, and then the electric and magnetic fields become the curvature.

The video tries to relate this idea to string theory, but that is speculation that did not pan out. The idea is completely essential to the Standard Model of physics, and our best explanation of the fundamental forces.

Carroll interviews the Famous Geography Professor

The latest Sean M. Carroll interview is Jared Diamond. Recent tweet about his famous book:

“Guns, Germs & Steel” was one of only 3 books in my entire life that I couldn’t finish. It’s that bad. Here’s the synopsis:

In the opening chapter he clearly states That he believes the 5’ tall Stone Age Pygmies of Papua New Guinea are more intelligent than Europeans. His rationale? He hung out with them and felt like it because they knew all the types of plants, and also their kids didn’t have TVs (I’m not kidding).

He also observed that unlike Europeans, they were constantly hacking each other to death with crude instruments. Which leads him to believe that they evolved to be smarter, because you need intelligence to survive permanent tribal warfare. Unlike cooperative farming. I really wish I was kidding about this.

He concludes therefore that any and all modern differences in technology and wealth are the result strictly of environmental factors. He spends the next 400 pages desperately cooking up insanely convoluted theories about why living in a food scarce frozen wasteland actually gives people far more free time to invent things than eating an inexhaustible supply of bananas on a tropical island would.

The book is full of contrived theories about ancient people where he has no evidence. In some cases, people have no written records, yet he somehow pretends to know everything about them.

He tells several stories about the 20th century. Stories that can easily be checked with Google. And they were gross distortions. If he cannot get 20th century facts right, how likely is it that he got facts from millennia ago?

I thought the book would be interesting because of its many awards, and because the question of explaining European success of the last millennium is an important one. But he says it was all luck, and tests do not back up his more specific theories.

Here is a more revealing interview of Diamond, this week. It all seems like garbage to me, but listen or read for yourself.

Update: Skeptic interview.

Project to Formalize All Math

About a century, Mathematics was put on firm foundations. Logically it was formalized into ZFC set theory. All theorems could, in principle, be logically derived from the axioms.

Textbook math was also made rigorous by a series of books by Bourbaki.

Now the dream of logicism is being fully realized. Jared Duker Lichtman writes:

The MAP: Mathematics Autoformalization Project

We are poised to translate all known math into formal code.

This is the math-equivalent of the Human Genome Project, or AlphaFold in modern times.

On September 4th, Anthropic shocked the math world by formalizing Fermat’s Last Theorem.

Soon the great body of math theorems will be formalized into computer-checkable proofs. No longer will there be any doubts about whether referees have adequately checked the proofs.

The proof-checking software has had some glitches, but they will soon be ironed out. Possibly some currently-accepted theorems will have to be rejected.

In the recently announced AI proof of a complex structure on the 6-sphere S⁶, the argument used a construction that a previously published paper supposedly proved was impossible. The AI found a flaw in that paper.

The math community has an amazingly good record of only publishing theorems that are true. It is way better than 99%. Soon it will be 100%. This is a level of precision unmatched in human history.

Not that this is the end of math. There is still plenty for humans to do. Humans need to make the works comprehensible, and to set directions for new research.

Now there are rumors of a Millennium Prize problem being solved, namely a counterexample to Navier-Stokes. A fluid flow that becomes singular in finite time. See this video. Apparently OpenAI, Anthropic, and some human mathematicians are competing for the credit, and the $1 million payoff.

If an AI LLM solved Navier-Stokes, this would be the biggest Math accomplishment yet. If the proof was mostly stolen from humans, the significance will be harder to assess.

Terry Tao, an expert on both Navier-Stokes and AI LLMs, discusses the progress. He says that finding a full counter-example looks feasible in the near future.

Update: Here is the OpenAI announcement. It complains that an NYU professor and an Anthropic employee did not agree to a joint announcement.

The journal Nature announces:

For the first time, a truly major open problem in mathematics has been solved by computer, according to OpenAI, which says it has cracked one of the ‘Millennium Problems’ related to the motion of fluids.

The artificial-intelligence (AI) company in San Francisco, California, announced on 8 September that it has generated a solution to the most commonly used physical model of fluids — the Navier-Stokes equations — showing that they can break down. Whether or not this could happen was one of the seven ‘Millennium Problems’ asked by the Clay Mathematics Institute at the turn of the twenty-first century. Solutions come with a prize of US$1 million....

They then decided to focus their resources on the Navier-Stokes problem on 1 September, after hearing rumours that two mathematicians, Levent Alpöge of Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Tristan Buckmaster of New York University, had solved some version of the fluid-motion puzzle using Anthropic AI’s models.

On 7 September, Alpöge and Buckmaster released a paper in which they say they had found a solution for the fluid equations that also achieved infinite speed, but in the simplified case in which the fluid has no viscosity.

So the AI LLM did not really solve this problem. It finished a work-in-progress by some human mathematicians.

AI LLMs have solved some major problems, but it is not so clear who deserves the credit in this case. It will be interesting to see who gets the $1 million.

Update: OpenAI says it is not claiming the million. It might have spent $50 million in computer time on it.

The counterexample is to Navier-Stokes with a forcing term. It is still not known whether the straight Navier-Stokes equation (with no forcing term) always has a solution.

Update: I should add that Professor Terry Tao is very pro-AI, and rarely gives any negative opinions. So it is significant that he criticized OpenAI's role in this matter.

Update: Rumors on big progress toward two other math millennium prize problems, Hodge and Birch-Swinnerton-Dyer.

The case against Galileo

Galileo is considered one of the great heroes of modern science. Supposedly he discovered the acceleration of gravity, the telescope, the moons of Jupiter, the relativity of motion, and heliocentrism.

Most of all, he is praised for standing up to the Pope in Rome.

Supposedly also, he discovered the experimental method. Before him, everyone blindly accepted what was written, if it came from Aristotle or the Bible. He was the first to have the courage to challenge them, and put ideas to an empirical test.

He is also sometimes credited with mathematizing science. He would deduce physical principles from pure thought, logic, math, and thought experiments. This belief is in tension with the belief that he was a great empiricist.

Wikipedia says:

Galileo has been called the father of observational astronomy,[9] modern-era classical physics,[10] the scientific method,[11] and modern science.[12]

Yes, Galileo really gets this gushing praise from historians and philosophers. It is all absurd.

I just discovered this 2020 podcast:

Galileo is the most overrated figure in the history of science. That is the thesis of Season 1 of my podcast, which consists of the following 18 episodes. ...

Galileo is praised for his work on falling bodies, but his arguments were dishonest and his trifling discoveries were not new. ...

Galileo committed scores of errors in his physics. These are bad in themselves and also undermine Galileo’s claim to credit for the things he did get right.

Galileo dismissed the notion that the moon influences the tides as “childish” and “occult.” Instead he argued that tides are a kind of sloshing due to the motion of the earth. This very poor theory is inconsistent with several of his own scientific principles.

Two thousand years before Galileo, Greek astronomers argued that the heavenly bodies revolve around the sun. Their reasoning involved sophisticated mathematics and sound physical considerations.

Galileo is credited with defeating Ptolemaic earth-centered astronomy, but most mathematical astronomers had already abandoned this theory long before Galileo.

The podcast thoroughly debunks the idea that Galileo was a great scientist. He got a lot of stuff wrong.

In particular, his main argument for heliocentrism was that the motion of the Earth caused the ocean tides. His theory was that there was one high tide per day. In fact there are two high tides per day, and it had been known for centuries that the Moon caused the tides. Also the Sun, if it is aligned.

Couldn't he just walk down to the beach and see for himself? Actually that is not so simple, as the Mediterranean is mostly an enclosed sea, and the tides are small and confusing.

Galileo is credited with an assortment of other things, and it is nearly all bogus. He did describe the moons of Jupiter, but only one day ahead of a German. He supposedly discovered Newton's first law of motion, that an object goes with constant velocity, in the absence of forces. But he only believed this for horizontal motion.

He used inclined planes to measure the acceleration of gravity, but his answer was off by a factor of two.

Listening to this podcast makes me wonder why Galileo was revered so much. Do people think his existence disproves Catholicism? I am not sure.

The craziest thing is not the overcrediting of Galileo, but the way the historians and philosophers argue that no one before Galileo tested ideas empirically, no one tried to observe the world, and no one tried to mathematize nature. Actually, these things had been done for millennia. The ancients created Astronomy models, built ships and pyramids, invented Geometry, and a lot of other great things. Of course they used observation, math, theory, and science.

The story reminds me about how lots of people credit Christopher Columbus for discovering the Earth being round. That is stupid on two levels. First, the roundness of the Earth was well-known to scholars for two millennia. Second, the claim does not even make any sense, as Columbus did not go around the Earth, but merely sailed to some islands and back.

Likewise, scholars have been doing science and mathematizing nature for millennia. And Galileo was not even a very good scientist, compared to his contemporaries. The work by Tycho and Kepler was 100x better than anything Galileo did. It was vastly superior in its empiricism and its mathematization, the two things that cause historians to idolize Galileo.