Tuesday, November 11, 2025

Many-worlds Theory Rejects Models and Probabilities

The Sean M. Carroll podcast just had a guest talking about models and probabilities for an hour. And then he said:
1:01:43 the many worlds idea that you know this wave function which is the beast of 1:01:48 quantum mechanics, the thing that it that it provides for the whole universe in principle um has a very natural way 1:01:56 of describing everything that there is as being split 1:02:01 into quote unquote worlds.

Um, and that there's a there's also a 1:02:09 very natural beast that comes with quantum mechanics which tells you how probable you are to be in a world and 1:02:16 that that's all you need. And that sort of and that all that there is is this wave function and these probabilities which are part of the wave function. 1:02:21 They're not externally tacked on. Um, and that from that you get out all of 1:02:26 the predictions of quantum mechanics that you could possibly want.

No, that is completely wrong. The many-worlds theory does not tell you how probable you are to be in a world, and it does not give you the predictions of quantum mechanics.

Carroll is a big proponent of many-worlds, and he knows the guest was wrong, but quietly wrapped up the interview.

Many-theory theory stands in opposition to everything the guest was says. He said all of physics, and indeed all of science and life itself, can be understand in terms of models and probabilities. But many-worlds theory is a rejection of that whole concept, as it hypothesizes that everything that can happen, does happen, and probabilities are meaningless.

People who learn many-worlds always assume that it says that some worlds are more likely than others. But no one has ever gotten that to work. Nor would the proponents want it to work, as the whole point is to reject models and probabilities.

Monday, November 10, 2025

Equivalence of Lorentz Aether Theory

Here is a pretty good Quora answer, from a prolific physicist 9 years ago:
Update: What is the difference between Lorentz Ether Theory, which spawned the Lorentz Transformation, and Special Relativity that uses the transformation as its basis as well?

Mark Barton
PhD in Physics, researcher at University of GlasgowAuthor has 17.9K answers and 23.7M answer views 9y

It's a bit hard to say precisely, because LET was never an entirely finished project, but it was clearly converging on being identical to SR, and if you include Poincare's corrections then it was essentially the same for practical purposes. The main difference is that LET took an ad-hoc and bottom-up approach which ended up grudgingly backing into the relativity principle and the Lorentz transformation, whereas SR took a top-down approach that cheerfully assumed the relativity principle from the beginning, immediately derived the Lorentz transformation from it, and then read off a bunch of new physics that had to be true for all this to make sense.

Anyone insisting on LET today is probably holding out for some combination of the following ideas: (i) there is absolute space consisting of points with well-defined identities and well-defined and constant distances between them, (ii) there is a fact of the matter as to whether any object is travelling past the points that make up space, (iii) there is an absolute time in the sense that history is cleaves naturally into well-defined instants spanning all of space, and (iv) there are well-defined time intervals between the instants.

The trouble is that to the extent the relativity principle is true, all of the above four points are unfalsifiable by any experiment. It's analogous to claiming that ordinary 2D space has a One True X Coordinate, that all the points with the same One True X Coordinate are invisibly linked so as to form a sort of grain structure, and that likewise there's only One True Y Coordinate, and all the points with the same One True Y Coordinate are linked as well.

So the people insisting on LET then fall into two broad groups (with some overlap): (i) the ones who say, yes, it may be unfalsifable, but it's just complete nonsense philosophically for it to be any other way so SR has to be an illusion, and (ii) the ones who maintain that some marginal ancient result proves that absolute space and time do exist after all.

Saying that LET was ad hoc and bottom-up means that it was based on Michelson-Morley and other experiments. Saying that Einstein's SR was top-down means that he used principles deduced from those experiments, and not the experiments themselves. Lorentz described this difference as Einstein postulating what was previously proved.

There are philosophers who argue that top-down is greatly superior to bottom-up. An empiricist might prefer bottom-up. I am not sure there is much practical difference.

In the top-down view, the Lorentz contraction is exactly what is needed for the relativity principle. An anti-positivist might prefer that. In the bottom-up view, it is what is needed for Michelson-Morley. A positivist would prefer that.

I quibble with Barton's last point. The discovery of the Cosmic microwave background was not "some marginal ancient result" and it does indeed define a frame for determining absolute time and whether an object is moving.

The radiation is remarkably uniform across the sky, very unlike the almost point-like structure of stars or clumps of stars in galaxies.[6] The radiation is isotropic to roughly one part in 25,000: the root mean square variations are just over 100 μK,[7] after subtracting a dipole anisotropy from the Doppler shift of the background radiation. The latter is caused by the peculiar velocity of the Sun relative to the comoving cosmic rest frame as it moves at 369.82 ± 0.11 km/s towards the constellation Crater near its boundary with the constellation Leo[8]
So we can say that our Sun is moving with velocity 370 km/sec towards Crater.

Sometimes it is said that special relativity is based on there being no privileged frame. But that is clearly false, as the CMB forms a privileged frame, and it has no effect on the predictions of special relativity.

Back in the early 1900s, LET was known as Lorentz-Einstein Theory. It was superseded by the Poincare-Minkowski theory of a 4D spacetime with the non-euclidean geometry of the metric +dx2+dy2+dz2-dt2.

Thursday, November 6, 2025

Quantum Computing Links

Google quantum echoes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEBCQidaNTQ

Nature cover story
https://www.nature.com/nature/volumes/646/issues/8086

Nature article
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09526-6

Reuters story
https://www.reuters.com/technology/google-says-it-has-developed-landmark-quantum-computing-algorithm-2025-10-22/

Google announcement
https://research.google/blog/a-verifiable-quantum-advantage/
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/google-measures-quantum-echoes-on-willow-quantum-computer-chip/

Yesterday's news
https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/11/05/1127659/a-new-ion-based-quantum-computer-makes-error-correction-simpler/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-next-big-quantum-computer-has-arrived-c1053c2a

Related Nobel prizes
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/2012/popular-information/
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/2022/popular-information/
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/2025/popular-information/

Nature 2019, Google quantum supremacy
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1666-5

Gil Kalai skepticism
https://gilkalai.wordpress.com/2022/08/06/ordinary-computers-can-beat-googles-quantum-computer-after-all/
https://gilkalai.wordpress.com/2025/11/03/computational-complexity-and-explanations-in-physics/

"Quantum supremacy can be achieved and then unachieved later."
https://www.aventine.org/quantum-computing-nuclear-reactor-recyling-solar-panels

Scott Aaronson's current view
https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=9243

current public key methods must be abandoned by 2035
https://csrc.nist.gov/csrc/media/Presentations/2025/nist-pqc-the-road-ahead/images-media/rwcpqc-march2025-moody.pdf

Peter Gutman, factoring is fake
https://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~pgut001/pubs/bollocks.pdf

Why haven't quantum computers factored 21 yet?
https://algassert.com/post/2500

Investor hype
https://www.fool.com/ext-content/this-breakthrough-could-be-as-big-as-the-internet/
https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/market-sectors/information-technology/ai-stocks/quantum-computing-stocks/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DKkcn1mpAI
https://youtu.be/RJ4Ld6F0Puc?si=vZxIgxZzJeMl6TQb&t=485

D-Wave short seller
https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Dwave-Kerrisdale.pdf
https://wallstreetpit.com/126447-kerrisdale-capital-d-wave-is-riding-quantum-hype-with-dead-end-tech/

We believe QUBT is a rampant fraud
https://www.capybararesearch.com/reports/quantum-computing-inc-a-stock-promotion-with-fake-products-sales-and-partnerships/

Quantum computing stocks
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QUBT/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IONQ/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RGTI/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QBTS/

Neven's Law
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_computing_scaling_laws
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-new-law-suggests-quantum-supremacy-could-happen-this-year/

RP Feynman argument, 1981 lecture, 1982 paper
https://s2.smu.edu/~mitch/class/5395/papers/feynman-quantum-1981.pdf

Galton board
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galton_board
https://mathworld.wolfram.com/GaltonBoard.html
https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/quincunx.html

Plinko
https://brainplay.com/p/plinko
https://sigma.world/play/games/spribe/plinko/
https://sigma.world/play/games/betsoft/plinko-rush/

Preskill on probability
https://youtu.be/0TFQgXaXGmk?si=7XRHO9x9q50uUAU5&t=114


Presentation slides


Monday, November 3, 2025

Talk on Quantum Computing Skepticism

I will be giving a presentation to the Quantum Computing Chicago Meetup on Quantum Computing Skepticism, Thurs. Nov. 6, at 6pm Central Time. I consider them very broad-minded to be willing to listen to my rants. The event is free to the public.

There has been some recent news, with Google claiming quantum supremacy again.

I will probably be posting some links on this blog, to support the talk.

Wednesday, October 29, 2025

Einstein Ignored the Relativity Experiments

Israel Philosophy professor and Einstein scholar Galina Weinstein posted a new paper:
From Drag to Invariance: The Experimental Pressure Behind Special Relativity

This paper completes a three-part study of Einstein's 1905 special relativity by reconstructing the experimental pressures that shaped his thinking from 1895 to June 1905. ...

In this reconstruction, the 1905 paper does not emerge as a kinematic postulate ex nihilo, but as a principled resolution forced by an interconnected complex of experimental anomalies.

This paper recites the historical evidence for special relativity, but there is little evidence that Einstein paid attention to any of it.

We do know what Einstein relied heavily on Lorentz's 1895 theory, without citing it.

Hendrick Antoon Lorentz advanced an electron theory, extending Maxwell’s electrodynamics. ...

Lorentz sought to preserve the form of Maxwell’s equations under such motion. His approach, known as the theorem of corresponding states, introduced auxiliary quantities that allowed the equations for moving systems to be cast in the same form as those for systems at rest in the ether.

In 1895, as part of a first-order treatment, Lorentz introduced the local time, a mathematical device without physical interpretation in his theory,

Yes, the local time was interpreted as the time for the moving body. That was necessary for Maxwell's equations and the experiments.

Lorentz was missing Poincare synchronization to relate the local times.

The Michelson-Morley experiment is often portrayed in textbooks as a crucial precursor to Einstein’s special relativity, suggesting that Einstein was either directly or indirectly influenced by it. However, Einstein gave varying accounts of its influence on his thinking, sometimes acknowledging it as significant and other times dismissing its role in his development of relativity.
This is not hard to understand. The experiment was crucial for relativity. Einstein correctly acknowledged it as very significant. But Einstein just relied on Lorentz's 1895 account of it, and did not pay much attention to it.

Einstein's 1905 paper was just an expository account of Lorentz's 1895 theorem, plus the Poincare synchronization of 1900 and the higher order Lorentz transformations of 1904. He just assumed that the Maxwell, Lorentz, and Poincare theories were correct, and ignored the experimental evidence. Weinstein has a 43-page paper on the experiments, but they had no influence on Einstein.

There are even physicists and philosophers who credit Einstein with being a great anti-positivist, because he pushed ahead with theories while ignoring experiment. To them, that was the essence of Einstein's brilliance and originality. While Lorentz and Poincare used experiments to justify their theories, Einstein just cherry-picked some principles from them and called them postulates. To accept the theory, you just had to accept the postulates, not the experiments.

Einstein's explanations are confusing because he lied about his sources all his life, and because he did not have much to do with the development and acceptance of special relativity. The theory was worked out by Lorentz and Poincare before Einstein wrote anything, and was popularizd in a geometric form by Minkowski.

This is the latest of dozens of papers and books that Weinstein has written to prop up Einstein's reputation. This one does not mention Poincare. It repeats her hallucinations about the aether. She tries really hard to credit Einstein, but she can never figure out what to credit him for.

Monday, October 27, 2025

New Look at Early Special Relativity Papers

New paper:
Lorentz, Poincare, Einstein, and the Genesis of the Theory of Special Relativity
Hector Giacomini

This work offers a historical reading of the genesis of special relativity by placing the contributions of Lorentz, Poincare, and Einstein within their scientific and editorial context. It highlights the importance of the German periodical Beiblatter zu den Annalen der Physik as a key channel for the dissemination of international scientific research. The perspective advanced here is that the true revolution did not lie in special relativity itself, but in Maxwell's electrodynamics. Special relativity thus appears as the necessary expression of a framework already transformed by the universality of the speed of light.

This is a fair review of early relativity publications. I learned a few things. Especially some of the circumstantial evidence that Einstein had access to other relativity papers that he refused to cite.

Einstein's explanation of originality does not make any sense:

Einstein defined his own contribution as having transformed Lorentz’s “local time” into the physical time of a moving inertial frame, thereby elevating a mathematical construction to the status of an empirical quantity. ...

It should be recalled that if Lorentz’s time variable t′ in his 1904 paper were merely an auxiliary mathematical device without physical meaning, it would be impossible to explain the negative results of the Michelson–Morley experiments. Lorentz, moreover, explicitly stated in that work that clocks based on electromagnetic mechanisms in the moving system must run slower.

There were numerous inexplicable failures to acknowledge Poincare's work, by Einstein and others. However there were exceptions, so it is clear that Einstein, Minkowski, and others knew about his work.

Einstein claimed to not know about Lorentz's crucial 1904 paper and Poincare's short 1905 paper, but circumstantial evidence implies he knew about both before submitting his own 1905 relativity paper. They were available in a library that Einstein used regularly, and they had generated a lot of attention.

Even if Einstein somehow missed these papers in June 1905, he certainly knew about them when he wrote review papers later. There can be no excuse for Einstein and others not crediting these papers.

In summary: for Poincaré, relativity is grounded in Maxwell’s theory; for Einstein, it is framed as a general kinematic structure, but in practice still bound to Maxwell’s electrodynamics since the limiting speed is taken from it. The two formulations are therefore logically equivalent, differing only in which statement is postulated and which is derived. ...

One may argue that the true revolution was not special relativity itself, but rather the electrodynamics of Ampère, Faraday, and Maxwell. It was this framework that largely shaped twentieth-century physics. ...

Einstein consistently thought in terms of electrodynamics.

Yes, I agree that the theories are logically equivalent, and that Maxwell should be considered an early founder of special relativity.

Some credit Einstein with elevating special relativity from electrodynamics to a spacetime theory, because he wrote a section on kinematics. However it is really Poincare who did that.

The above paper says Poincare's relativity is grounded in Maxwell theory, but Poincare's 1905 papers explicitly say that it is a spacetime theory, and apply it to gravity without any electromagnetism involved. In the Lorentz-Einstein theory, it is never clear whether the relativistic effects are purely electromagnetic.

By 1905, many German physicists were already referring to a “Lorentz–Einstein theory,” which probably prompted Einstein to restate explicitly his intellectual independence. ...

These examples show that, by the late 1900s, the expression “Lorentz–Einstein” circulated across private correspondence (Planck), major physics journals (Bucherer, Levi-Civita), and popular scientific works (Cohn). Far from being marginal, it indicates that relativity was then widely perceived in Germany as a joint construction, or at least as a theory of shared intellectual parentage between Lorentz and Einstein. By contrast, Poincaré — though a central figure in the same debates — was already largely excluded from this emerging tradition.

By "late 1900s" he must mean 1905-10. The Lorentz-Einstein theory could have been considered just an interpretation of the Maxwell theory.

The above paper does not explain why Poincare was excluded. The record is clear that everyone knew who he was and what he did. He was extremely highly respected. Maybe even the most respected and widely-read scholar in Europe. If someone thought that his work was substandard or inferior or derivative or wrong, he could have said so. No one did.

The paper notes that there is a paper trail showing how Lorentz and Poincare came to their conclusions about relativity, but Einstein's route is more mysterious. He cites no previous works. Some claim that Einstein was inspired in isolation. This paper makes it clear that Einstein had access to good libraries and read the top journals. He was plugged into current research.

If Einstein had some plausible story, that would be worth considering. But he did not. The obvious conclusion is that he got all those ideas from Lorentz and Poincare.

Wednesday, October 22, 2025

Plagiarism Charges Against AI Nobel Prize

Jürgen Schmidhuber, a famous AI researcher, posted this last year:
Sadly, the 2024 Nobel Prize in Physics awarded to Hopfield & Hinton is effectively a prize for plagiarism. They republished foundational methodologies for artificial neural networks developed by Ivakhnenko, Amari and others in Ukraine and Japan during the 1960s and 1970s, as well as other techniques, without citing the original papers. Even in their subsequent surveys and recent 2025 articles, they failed to acknowledge the original inventors. This apparently turned what may have been unintentional plagiarism into a deliberate act. Hopfield and Hinton did not invent any of the key algorithms that underpin modern artificial intelligence.
Dr. Bee just explained this in a video. She points out that there is no Nobel for Computer Science, so the committee had to use some strained logic to find some AI that could be called physics.

Maybe Schmidhuber is mad he did not get a prize himself? No, his criticism tracks his 2022 Annotated History of Modern AI and Deep Learning, where he gives an account of who invented what.

Many-worlds Theory Rejects Models and Probabilities

The Sean M. Carroll podcast just had a guest talking about models and probabilities for an hour. And then he said : 1:01:43 the many worlds...