The dumber you are, the more certain you are that you aren't. That's the Dunning-Kruger effect, and it's been used to explain everything from bad politicians to the state of social media. Now psychologists have gone back to the biggest dataset we have and come out with the opposite conclusion. But there's a reason both sides can look at the same dots and see the opposite thing.I agree with her. Somehow this obscure has entered public consciousness, and people commonly cite confidence as evidence of incompetence, according to this effect.
The whole subject appears to be an inside joke. Anyone citing the Dunning-Kruger effect is likely an idiot.
I have criticized the effect as bogus here, here, and here. The published effect is really just a misunderstanding of regression to the mean.
Confidence can have different sources.
ReplyDeleteTwo people can both be confident. One of them might actually be competent and capable, and know this, the other could easily be a fool who has been flattered to the point of delusion.