Evidence continues to pile up that we are not living in the universe of Gil Kalai and the other quantum computing skeptics. Indeed, given the current staggering rate of hardware progress, I now think it’s a live possibility that we’ll have a fault-tolerant quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm before the next US presidential election. And I say that not only because of the possibility of the next US presidential election getting cancelled, or preempted by runaway superintelligence!Note that he is not quite saying that I have been proved wrong. Maybe I will be proved wrong by 2028.
Friday, November 14, 2025
Quantum Supremacy by 2028
Dr. Quantum Supremacy lists some recent quantum computing announcements, and says:
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Is there a video recording or transcript of the anti-QC talk you gave a couple weeks ago?
ReplyDeleteThe host said that he was recording it, and I assumed that he would post it. He has not posted it yet.
ReplyDeleteMyself, Mikhail Dyakonov, Mike Price, and John Norton have definitively refuted QCs. They run up against definite chaos and thermodynamics speed limits. If you accept the Standard Model, they don't work. The noise models are extremely flawed and have everyone assuming unphysical starting points. I'm having a hard time getting Gil to understand, but he bases his rejection on very abstract complexity arguments. Few people have a good training in QFT. Very general bounds can be derived.
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