Investing in 150 Proof-of-concept Projects

More quantum computer hype in the business news:

A Practical Quantum Computer Is Coming! But When?

CNBC 3.85M subscribers

Google, IBM, Amazon, Microsoft and Intel are all working on quantum technology, as are numerous startups. At its annual GTC developer conference this week Nvidia CEO, Jensen Huang, announced the company was opening a quantum research lab in Boston. Governments around the world have also pledged over $50 billion to develop the technology. Quantum computers hold huge potential, with experts saying that they could transform entire sectors including material science, pharmaceutical research and financial services. But despite massive advancements in the field in recent years, right now, these quantum computers aren’t able to solve big real-world problems. CNBC's Kate Rooney visits California-based startup, PsiQuantum and spoke to experts about the major challenges this tech still faces as engineers work to transition quantum computers from lab experimentation to commercial viability.

As the video explains, many billions are being invested, in a huge fear of getting left behind. Much of it is going into "proof of concept" projects.

15:54 Public interest in quantum technology is growing. 15:57 The number of quantum computing proof of concept 16:00 enterprise projects surged by 50% between 2022 and 16:04 2024, to over 150 active projects. 16:08 Consulting firm Booz Allen, Airbus Ventures and Bosch 16:12 Ventures have all invested in quantum computers. 16:14 Meanwhile, Shadbolt says Illinois is investing $500 16:17 million to construct a quantum computing campus in 16:21 Chicago, of which Psi quantum will be the anchor 16:24 tenant. Psi quantum has also received $620 million from 16:29 the Australian and Queensland governments to 16:31 build a utility -scale quantum computer in 16:34 Brisbane, which the company says will be operational by 16:37 the end of 2027. 16:39 Experts say, investing now is a smart move. 16:43 When quantum computers reach quantum advantage, 16:46 which is effectively the period in which quantum 16:48 computers outperform classical computers at 16:52 important real world problems, 16:54 it will be much, much harder to get your 16:56 hands on a quantum computer unless you're developing 16:59 partnerships with the major providers right now.

Some people are going to see this, and think that quantum computing must really be a hot technology, to have so much investment, and even a panic to invest more.

I think the opposite. With generous funding to a lot of super-smart physicists of 150 proof-of-concept projects, and none proving that the concept is viable, I think that it is probably impossible.

The Nvidia CEO got some heat for saying quantum computing is many years away:

He also expressed surprise that his comments were able to move markets, and joked he didn’t know that certain quantum computing companies were publicly traded.

“How could a quantum computer company be public?” Huang said.

Forty years ago, a company had to be profitable to go public. Later, companies could go public with a large market share and user base, and no profits. Now a company can go public with no product, no customers, and not even a proof of concept.

Meanwhile, the England crypto spooks have published a roadmap for protecting communications from quantum computers:

In our 2023 white paper, the NCSC outlined the need to prepare for migration to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) due to the threat to cryptography posed by future developments in quantum computing.

The guidance defines three phases for migration.

The first of those involves carrying out a full discovery exercise to understand your estate, and identify services that are dependent on cryptography that will need to be upgraded to PQC. This then enables you to build an initial migration plan, identifying priority services for migration. 2028 is the target date for completing all of this.

The second phase is carrying out the highest priority migration activities that you have identified, and refining your plan as the PQC ecosystem develops so that you have a thorough roadmap for completing migration. You should aim to complete this phase in 2031.

The third phase is to complete migration to PQC of all your systems, services and products, with 2035 as your target.

That does not mean that they think SSL/TLS encryption will be broken in 2035. They like to preserve secrets for 50 years, so maybe they are worried about attacks in 2085.

Quanta magazine reports that quantum algorithms have been disappointing:

This contest almost always ends as a virtual tie: When researchers think they’ve devised a quantum algorithm that works faster or better than anything else, classical researchers usually come up with one that equals it. Just last week, a purported quantum speedup, published in the journal Science (opens a new tab), was met with immediate skepticism from two separate groups who showed how to perform similar calculations on classical machines.

Military intelligence will switch to PQC, but I would not be surprised if the private sector never switches.